Why The “Big 3” Are Likely The Favorites Again For Sunday’s South Point 400 (3 p.m. ET/NBCSN/PRN/SiriusXM NASCAR Radio)

The “Big 3” won 16 of the first 21 races to the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series season. If you take out the plate races, they were 16-for-18. But, over the last five races of the regular season, they were only 1-for-5. They’ve obviously since cooled off.

Despite that, maybe that’s because we haven’t had a 1.5-mile track on the schedule in the last two months. The last time we raced on a 1.5-mile track, Martin Truex Jr. dominated the show on July 14 at the Kentucky Speedway. That was the 13th straight win on a 1.5-mile track for one of the “Big 3” members. In fact, they’ve won 15 of the last 18 races on 1.5-mile tracks dating back to the start of last season. 

The only time since the Kansas race in May of 2017 that Truex, Kevin Harvick or Kyle Busch didn’t win a race on an “intermediate track” was the 2017 Coca Cola 600 which Austin Dillon won on fuel mileage.

Truex, has finishes this year on 1.5-mile tracks of fifth (Atlanta), fourth (Las Vegas), 37th (Texas), second (Kansas), second (Charlotte), fourth (Chicagoland) and first (Kentucky). If you want to go back to the end of the 2017 season, he won at Homestead, Kansas, Charlotte and Kentucky finished second at Texas too. That’s six wins and four runner-ups in his last 13 starts on intermediate tracks. He won at Vegas in 2017 too.

Harvick, has three wins (Atlanta, Vegas, Kansas) on these tracks in 2018 and a runner-up (Texas) to his credit. He also finished third at Chicagoland and fifth in Kentucky. If you go back to 2017 for him too, Harvick, finished fourth at Homestead, first at Texas, eighth at Kansas, third at Charlotte and third at Charlotte and Chicagoland. Back in the spring, Harvick led 214 of 267 laps in a dominating victory.

Busch, has been equally as strong. His finishes on these tracks in 2018 are seventh, second, first, 10th, first, first and fourth respectively.

To me, these are the ones to beat again this weekend.

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