This shouldn’t come to any surprise to any Formula One race fan, but I don’t see any driver other than the six combined that drive for Mercedes, Ferrari or Red Bull scoring any podium finishes any time soon. Shocker, I know. But, the stats to why are also very staggering. First off, lets look in terms of victories. Since 2014, the three teams have combined to win all 87 F1 races. Mercedes, has won 65 of the 87 Grand Prix’s (75-percent) while Ferrari and Red Bull have won 12 and 10 races a piece respectively.
With the way this season has started, I don’t think anyone other than Lewis Hamilton, Valtteri Bottas, Sebastian Vettel, Kimi Raikkonen, Daniel Ricciardo or Max Verstappen are winning in 2018. So, if the other 14 drivers aren’t winning, what about second place?
Not happening either.
The best finish of a non Mercedes, Ferrari or Red Bull driver since 2015 was third.
That’s a great sample size there. The last time a non driver from those three teams finished runner-up was July 20, 2014 when Valtteri Bottas and his Williams team came home second in Germany. We’re nearing four years ago now.
So, the odds of winning are, well none and the odds of any team not of the “Big 3” finishing second are well, one in every four years. So virtually none again.
What about just getting on the podium with a third place effort?
Since 2015, that’s only happened 11 times. Out of those 11 times, Williams have done it the most with six podium (3rd place) results. But, the last time they did so was in Baku last year with Lance Stroll. This season, their best finish was eighth. They’re not threatening for a podium finish any time soon. Plus, out of the six podium finishes, three of which went to Bottas who’s now with Mercedes. Two more went to Felipe Massa and he’s since retired from racing.
The next best was Force India with four. Sergio Perez accomplished all four Force India third place finishes with most recently doing so this season in Baku. He also was third in 2016 too. The only other third place finishes for him came in Monaco in 2016 and Russia in 2015.
Other than that, the only other team to finish third was Lotus with Romain Grosjean’s podium effort in Belgium in 2015. Grosjean is now with Haas and Lotus isn’t an F1 team anymore.
Now, to take this a step further, out of all those third place finishes, over half have come on street courses. In fact, the last five third place finishes by a team not of Mercedes, Ferrari or Red Bull have come on street courses. All were either at Monaco, Montreal or Baku. Those three races are behind us. The last third place finish on a natural road course came by Perez in the Russian Grand Prix in 2015.
So, the last second place finish by a non “Big 3” team member was July 20, 2014.
The last third place finish on a natural road course was Oct. 11, 2015.
Do you really think either of those trends ends this season?